Today / Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga / Mainz 05 W vs Ingolstadt W

Mainz 05 W vs Ingolstadt W Prediction— Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:00

Mainz 05 W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ingolstadt W

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.4%0-21.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.2%1-14.5%1-23.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.1%2-17.2%2-25.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.4%3-17.7%3-25.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-09.8%4+-113.8%4+-29.7%4+-34.6%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.5% — — —

Draw 20.8% — — —

Away win 20.7% — — —

Over 2.5 73.1% — — —

Over 3.5 67.7% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.0%

H 58% / xG 3.2-1.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 7.2%

#3 4–1 6.2%

#4 3–0 5.4%

#5 3–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mainz 05 W3.2

Ingolstadt W1.4

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.1% · O3.5 PROB 67.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MAINZ 05 W · PPG 2.00

INGOLSTADT W · PPG 1.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.58)

Win probability 1X2

Mainz 05 W (H) 58.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ingolstadt W (A) 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mainz 05 W face Ingolstadt W in Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mainz 05 W a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Ingolstadt W 21%, so Mainz 05 W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Mainz 05 W and 1.4 for Ingolstadt W (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mainz 05 W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.58 for Ingolstadt W. This match finished 5-0.

Mainz 05 W vs Ingolstadt W Prediction— Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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