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Ingolstadt W vs FC Bayern B W Prediction— Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

Ingolstadt W

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Bayern B W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.1%0-21.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-03.3%1-15.6%1-24.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.6%2-17.6%2-26.4%2-33.6%2-4+2.2%3 3-04.1%3-16.9%3-25.8%3-33.2%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-19.2%4+-27.7%4+-34.3%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 24.8% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 64.1% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.0%

H 53% / xG 2.7-1.7 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 3–1✓ 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ingolstadt W2.7

FC Bayern B W1.7

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 64.1%

Form & verdict PPG

INGOLSTADT W · PPG 1.33

FC BAYERN B W · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ingolstadt W (H) 52.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FC Bayern B W (A) 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ingolstadt W face FC Bayern B W in Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ingolstadt W a 53% chance, the draw 23% and FC Bayern B W 25%, so Ingolstadt W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Ingolstadt W and 1.7 for FC Bayern B W (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ingolstadt W are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for FC Bayern B W. This match finished 3-1.

Ingolstadt W vs FC Bayern B W Prediction— Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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