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FC Volendam vs Heerenveen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 10:15

FC Volendam

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Heerenveen

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 68% chance

Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.2%0-25.6%0-32.9%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.0%1-110.9%1-28.5%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.3%2-26.4%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.7%3-14.2%3-23.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 31.7% 3.15 +11.8%

Draw 27.3% 25.3% 3.95 +7.8%

Away win 37.2% 49.5% 2.02 -24.9%

Over 2.5 59.2% 67.6% 1.48 -12.4%

Over 3.5 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

BTTS 63.2% 70.4% 1.42 -10.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

A 37% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Volendam1.5

Heerenveen1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC VOLENDAM · PPG 1.53

HEERENVEEN · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

68%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

FC Volendam (H) 35.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +11.8%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +7.8%

Heerenveen (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Volendam face Heerenveen in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Volendam a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Heerenveen 37%, so Heerenveen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FC Volendam and 1.6 for Heerenveen (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Volendam are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.20 for Heerenveen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 0-2.

FC Volendam vs Heerenveen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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