FC Volendam vs Heerenveen Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Netherlands - Eredivisie Regular Season - 32 Kras Stadion· Volendam Sunday, May 3, 2026 10:15

FC Volendam PPG 1.53

0-2 MISS

Heerenveen PPG 1.20

Home· +11.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Volendam face Heerenveen in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Volendam a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Heerenveen 37%, so Heerenveen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FC Volendam and 1.6 for Heerenveen (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Volendam are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.20 for Heerenveen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.5%

Odds: 3.15 EV: +11.8%

Draw 27.3%

Odds: 3.95 EV: +7.8%

Away 37.2%

Odds: 2.02 EV: -24.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.2% Odds: 1.48 -12.4%

Over 3.5 36.8% Odds: 2.20 -19.0%

BTTS 63.2% Odds: 1.42 -10.3%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Volendam

1.52

Heerenveen

1.55

Model SuggestionBTTS -10.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -10.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+11.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5/Under 65%

BTTS/No 68%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63% (8 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

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Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)