Today / Portugal - Primeira Liga / Rio Ave vs AVS

Rio Ave vs AVS Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 19:45

Rio Ave

PPG 0.93 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

AVS

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWD

// Model verdict

Home 58% chance

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-17.6%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.6%1-111.9%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.4%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.6%3-14.9%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 59.2% 1.69 -9.4%

Draw 25.4% 27.4% 3.65 -7.3%

Away win 21.1% 20.6% 4.85 +2.3%

Over 2.5 44.2% 54.1% 1.85 -18.2%

Over 3.5 23.1% 30.8% 3.25 -24.9%

BTTS 46.3% 55.6% 1.80 -16.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.3%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rio Ave1.6

AVS0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RIO AVE · PPG 0.93

AVS · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.93) > Away POOR (0.29)

Win probability 1X2

Rio Ave (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -9.4%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.3%

AVS (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rio Ave face AVS in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rio Ave a 54% chance, the draw 25% and AVS 21%, so Rio Ave are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Rio Ave and 0.9 for AVS (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rio Ave are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.29 for AVS. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Rio Ave vs AVS Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Primeira Liga Predictions