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FC Porto vs Alverca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 19:30

FC Porto

PPG 2.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Alverca

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

Home 80% chance

Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-14.5%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-19.2%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.1%3-16.5%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-15.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.3% 85.5% 1.17 -21.3%

Draw 22.2% 16.0% 6.25 +38.8%

Away win 10.5% 5.9% 17.00 +78.5%

Over 2.5 52.7% 64.5% 1.55 -18.3%

Over 3.5 30.4% 42.6% 2.35 -28.6%

BTTS 46.2% 44.4% 2.25 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 67% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0✓ 12.8%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Porto2.1

Alverca0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC PORTO · PPG 2.60

ALVERCA · PPG 0.87

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

80%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.60), Away POOR (0.87) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC Porto (H) 67.3%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -21.3%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +38.8%

Alverca (A) 10.5%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +78.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Porto face Alverca in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Porto a 67% chance, the draw 22% and Alverca 11%, so FC Porto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for FC Porto and 0.7 for Alverca (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Porto are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.87 for Alverca. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +78.5%. This match finished 1-0.

FC Porto vs Alverca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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