← Back to picks 
Netherlands - Eredivisie Saturday, May 2, 2026 19:00 
NEC Nijmegen PPG 1.87 
Telstar PPG 0.87
Netherlands - Eredivisie Saturday, May 2, 2026 19:00 NEC Nijmegen PPG 1.871-1 HIT CS2
Telstar PPG 0.87Away· +10.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 70.6% Odds: 1.40 -1.2%
Over 3.5 49.5% Odds: 2.00 -1.0%
BTTS 67.5% Odds: 1.48 -0.1%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 2-1 ✘
2nd 1-1 ✔
3rd 3-1 ✘
4th 2-0 ✘
5th 2-2 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
NEC Nijmegen 2.32
Telstar 1.33
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -1.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -1.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+10.9%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+10.9%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.87) vs P(Home)=58.4%