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NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 19:00

NEC Nijmegen

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Telstar

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 71% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.5%0-22.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.0%1-18.0%1-25.3%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-19.3%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.4%3-17.2%3-24.8%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-17.2%4+-24.8%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 66.7% 1.50 -12.4%

Draw 21.8% 22.7% 4.40 -4.1%

Away win 19.8% 17.9% 5.60 +10.9%

Over 2.5 70.6% 71.4% 1.40 -1.2%

Over 3.5 49.5% 50.0% 2.00 -1.0%

BTTS 67.5% 67.6% 1.48 -0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob67.5%

H 58% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1✓ 8.0%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NEC Nijmegen2.3

Telstar1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.6% · O3.5 PROB 49.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEC NIJMEGEN · PPG 1.87

TELSTAR · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

71%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.87) vs P(Home)=58.4%

Win probability 1X2

NEC Nijmegen (H) 58.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -12.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -4.1%

Telstar (A) 19.8%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

NEC Nijmegen face Telstar in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NEC Nijmegen a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Telstar 20%, so NEC Nijmegen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.3 for Telstar (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 0.87 for Telstar. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.9%. This match finished 1-1.

NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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