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FC Basel vs Thun Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Championship Group - 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:30

FC Basel

PPG 1.59 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Thun

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.4%0-27.0%0-33.9%0-4+2.4%1 1-06.6%1-111.1%1-29.2%1-35.1%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.4%2-17.3%2-26.1%2-33.4%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.9%3-13.2%3-22.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 38.2% 2.62 -24.5%

Draw 27.3% 26.3% 3.80 +3.7%

Away win 43.9% 42.9% 2.33 +2.3%

Over 2.5 57.5% 72.5% 1.38 -20.6%

Over 3.5 35.1% 51.3% 1.95 -31.6%

BTTS 61.2% 75.2% 1.33 -18.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.2%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–2 7.0%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Basel1.3

Thun1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.5% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC BASEL · PPG 1.59

THUN · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

FC Basel (H) 28.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -24.5%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +3.7%

Thun (A) 43.9%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Basel face Thun in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Basel a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Thun 44%, so Thun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FC Basel and 1.7 for Thun (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Basel are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 2.25 for Thun. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 3-1.

FC Basel vs Thun Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Super League Predictions