FC Basel vs Thun Prediction & Tips

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Switzerland - Super League Championship Group - 35 St. Jakob-Park· Basel Saturday, May 2, 2026 18:30

FC Basel PPG 1.59

3-1 MISS

Thun PPG 2.25

Draw· +3.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 28.8%

Odds: 2.62 EV: -24.5%

Draw 27.3%

Odds: 3.80 EV: +3.7%

Away 43.9%

Odds: 2.33 EV: +2.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.5% Odds: 1.38 -20.6%

Over 3.5 35.1% Odds: 1.95 -31.6%

BTTS 61.2% Odds: 1.33 -18.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Basel

1.32

Thun

1.67

Model SuggestionBTTS -18.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -18.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+3.7%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home GOOD (1.59)