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Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:30

Miedz Legnica

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Stal Mielec

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 66.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.6%0-23.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.8%1-19.3%1-26.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.6%3-16.4%3-24.4%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.1%4+-23.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 57.1% 1.75 -10.2%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -14.9%

Away win 24.5% 26.3% 3.80 -6.9%

Over 2.5 66.0% — — —

Over 3.5 44.1% — — —

BTTS 66.2% 64.5% 1.55 +2.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob66.2%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miedz Legnica2.0

Stal Mielec1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MIEDZ LEGNICA · PPG 2.00

STAL MIELEC · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=51.3%

Win probability 1X2

Miedz Legnica (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -10.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.9%

Stal Mielec (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miedz Legnica face Stal Mielec in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miedz Legnica a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Stal Mielec 25%, so Miedz Legnica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Miedz Legnica and 1.4 for Stal Mielec (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miedz Legnica are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.93 for Stal Mielec. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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