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Famalicao vs Benfica Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:00

Famalicao

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Benfica

PPG 2.47 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-113.1%0-28.6%0-33.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.9%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.9%2-16.4%2-24.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.6%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.2% 19.2% 5.20 +36.2%

Draw 31.7% 24.4% 4.10 +30.0%

Away win 42.1% 62.9% 1.59 -33.1%

Over 2.5 40.6% 57.1% 1.75 -28.9%

Over 3.5 20.2% 34.7% 2.88 -41.8%

BTTS 48.0% 56.5% 1.77 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.0%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 0–1 13.1%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Famalicao1.0

Benfica1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FAMALICAO · PPG 1.80

BENFICA · PPG 2.47

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.47) vs Home GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Famalicao (H) 26.2%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +36.2%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +30.0%

Benfica (A) 42.1%

ODDS 1.59 · IMPLIED 62.9% EV -33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Famalicao face Benfica in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Famalicao a 26% chance, the draw 32% and Benfica 42%, so Benfica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Famalicao and 1.3 for Benfica (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Famalicao are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.47 for Benfica. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +36.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Famalicao vs Benfica Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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