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FC Groningen vs Excelsior Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:45

FC Groningen

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Excelsior

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.7%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.4%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.5%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 59.9% 1.67 -16.8%

Draw 27.5% 23.8% 4.20 +15.5%

Away win 22.8% 23.0% 4.35 -0.8%

Over 2.5 52.8% 66.7% 1.50 -20.8%

Over 3.5 30.5% 44.4% 2.25 -31.4%

BTTS 56.0% 66.7% 1.50 -16.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.0%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Groningen1.7

Excelsior1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FC GRONINGEN · PPG 1.47

EXCELSIOR · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

FC Groningen (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -16.8%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +15.5%

Excelsior (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Groningen face Excelsior in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Groningen a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Excelsior 23%, so FC Groningen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FC Groningen and 1.1 for Excelsior (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Groningen are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.93 for Excelsior. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 2-3.

FC Groningen vs Excelsior Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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