FC Groningen vs Excelsior Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Groningen face Excelsior in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Groningen a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Excelsior 23%, so FC Groningen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FC Groningen and 1.1 for Excelsior (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Groningen are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.93 for Excelsior. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 2-3.