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Winterthur vs FC Zurich Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Relegation Group · Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:00

Winterthur

PPG 0.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Zurich

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 71% chance

Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-16.0%0-25.5%0-33.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-05.2%1-19.5%1-28.7%1-35.4%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.1%2-17.5%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.2%3-14.0%3-23.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.2%4+-22.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% 38.2% 2.62 -15.9%

Draw 25.2% 26.0% 3.85 -3.0%

Away win 42.6% 42.9% 2.33 -0.7%

Over 2.5 66.5% 67.6% 1.48 -1.6%

Over 3.5 44.7% 46.5% 2.15 -3.9%

BTTS 68.3% 71.4% 1.40 -4.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob68.3%

A 43% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2✓ 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Winterthur1.6

FC Zurich1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WINTERTHUR · PPG 0.63

FC ZURICH · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

71%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.63), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Winterthur (H) 32.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -15.9%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.0%

FC Zurich (A) 42.6%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Winterthur face FC Zurich in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Winterthur a 32% chance, the draw 25% and FC Zurich 43%, so FC Zurich are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Winterthur and 1.8 for FC Zurich (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Winterthur are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 0.88 for FC Zurich. This match finished 2-2.

Winterthur vs FC Zurich Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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