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Lausanne Sport vs Luzern Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Relegation Group - 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:00

Lausanne Sport

PPG 1.35 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Luzern

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.7% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.2%0-24.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.3%1-19.2%1-28.0%1-34.6%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.8%3-14.8%3-24.2%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.2%4+-22.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 42.6% 2.35 -10.0%

Draw 25.0% 26.3% 3.80 -5.0%

Away win 36.7% 38.2% 2.62 -3.9%

Over 2.5 68.0% 70.4% 1.42 -3.4%

Over 3.5 46.5% 50.0% 2.00 -7.0%

BTTS 69.7% 74.1% 1.35 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob69.7%

H 38% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lausanne Sport1.8

Luzern1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.0% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUSANNE SPORT · PPG 1.35

LUZERN · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.35), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Lausanne Sport (H) 38.3%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -10.0%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.0%

Luzern (A) 36.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lausanne Sport face Luzern in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lausanne Sport a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Luzern 37%, so Lausanne Sport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lausanne Sport and 1.7 for Luzern (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lausanne Sport are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.47 for Luzern. This match finished 1-3.

Lausanne Sport vs Luzern Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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