Today / Russia - Premier League / CSKA Moscow vs Zenit

CSKA Moscow vs Zenit Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:00

CSKA Moscow

PPG 2.23 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Zenit

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-111.8%0-27.3%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.7%1-113.1%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.9%2-17.3%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.2%3-12.7%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 23.5% 4.25 +32.6%

Draw 31.9% 26.5% 3.78 +20.6%

Away win 36.9% 53.5% 1.87 -31.0%

Over 2.5 41.6% 52.9% 1.89 -21.4%

Over 3.5 21.0% 32.3% 3.10 -34.9%

BTTS 49.5% 57.5% 1.74 -13.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.5%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA Moscow1.1

Zenit1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.6% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA MOSCOW · PPG 2.23

ZENIT · PPG 1.62

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.23) > Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

CSKA Moscow (H) 31.2%

ODDS 4.25 · IMPLIED 23.5% EV +32.6%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.78 · IMPLIED 26.5% EV +20.6%

Zenit (A) 36.9%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -31.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA Moscow face Zenit in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA Moscow a 31% chance, the draw 32% and Zenit 37%, so Zenit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for CSKA Moscow and 1.2 for Zenit (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA Moscow are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 1.62 for Zenit. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +32.6%. This match finished 1-3.

CSKA Moscow vs Zenit Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Russia - Premier League Predictions