Stal Rzeszow vs Polonia Warszaw Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Poland - I Liga Regular Season - 29 Stadion Miejski w Rzeszowie· Rzeszow Friday, April 17, 2026 18:30

Stal Rzeszow PPG 1.57

0-2 HIT CS5

Polonia Warszaw PPG 1.64

Away· +6.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Stal Rzeszow face Polonia Warszaw in Poland - I Liga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stal Rzeszow a 29% chance, the draw 23% and Polonia Warszaw 48%, so Polonia Warszaw are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Stal Rzeszow and 1.8 for Polonia Warszaw (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stal Rzeszow are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.64 for Polonia Warszaw. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 29.1%

Odds: 2.75 EV: -20.0%

Draw 22.7%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -25.1%

Away 48.2%

Odds: 2.20 EV: +6.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 62.7% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 40.4% Odds: — —

BTTS 63.2% Odds: 1.44 -9.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-2 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Stal Rzeszow

1.39

Polonia Warszaw

1.84

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.0% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-9.0%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.64)