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Stal Rzeszow vs Polonia Warszaw Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:30

Stal Rzeszow

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Polonia Warszaw

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-17.3%0-26.7%0-34.1%0-4+2.9%1 1-05.5%1-110.1%1-29.3%1-35.7%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.8%2-17.0%2-26.5%2-34.0%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.8%3-13.3%3-23.0%3-31.8%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 36.4% 2.75 -20.0%

Draw 22.7% 30.3% 3.30 -25.1%

Away win 48.2% 45.5% 2.20 +6.0%

Over 2.5 62.7% — — —

Over 3.5 40.4% — — —

BTTS 63.2% 69.4% 1.44 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.2%

A 48% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.0%

#5 0–2✓ 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stal Rzeszow1.4

Polonia Warszaw1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

STAL RZESZOW · PPG 1.57

POLONIA WARSZAW · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Stal Rzeszow (H) 29.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -20.0%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -25.1%

Polonia Warszaw (A) 48.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stal Rzeszow face Polonia Warszaw in Poland - I Liga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stal Rzeszow a 29% chance, the draw 23% and Polonia Warszaw 48%, so Polonia Warszaw are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Stal Rzeszow and 1.8 for Polonia Warszaw (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stal Rzeszow are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.64 for Polonia Warszaw. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Stal Rzeszow vs Polonia Warszaw Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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