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Nacional vs AVS Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:30

Nacional

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

AVS

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.1%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.8%1-111.0%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.3%3-15.8%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 66.2% 1.51 -15.4%

Draw 26.4% 23.8% 4.20 +10.9%

Away win 17.6% 16.9% 5.90 +3.8%

Over 2.5 51.0% 59.9% 1.67 -14.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 37.0% 2.70 -22.0%

BTTS 52.0% 57.1% 1.75 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.0%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional1.8

AVS0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL · PPG 1.13

AVS · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.13) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Nacional (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -15.4%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +10.9%

AVS (A) 17.6%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional face AVS in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional a 56% chance, the draw 26% and AVS 18%, so Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Nacional and 0.9 for AVS (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.33 for AVS. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Nacional vs AVS Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Primeira Liga Predictions