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Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:30

Moreirense

PPG 1.53 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Estrela Amadora

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.4%0-24.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.0%1-112.4%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.9%3-14.4%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 36.8% 2.72 +17.2%

Draw 29.7% 32.8% 3.05 -9.4%

Away win 27.2% 37.6% 2.66 -27.7%

Over 2.5 47.9% 45.5% 2.20 +5.4%

Over 3.5 26.2% 23.8% 4.20 +10.0%

BTTS 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.8%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreirense1.5

Estrela Amadora1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MOREIRENSE · PPG 1.53

ESTRELA AMADORA · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Moreirense (H) 43.1%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +17.2%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -9.4%

Estrela Amadora (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreirense face Estrela Amadora in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreirense a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Estrela Amadora 27%, so Moreirense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Moreirense and 1.1 for Estrela Amadora (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreirense are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.73 for Estrela Amadora. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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