Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Prediction & Tips

Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 32 Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas· Moreira de Conegos Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:30

Moreirense PPG 1.53

3-2 MISS

Estrela Amadora PPG 0.73

Home· +17.2% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 43.1%

Odds: 2.72 EV: +17.2%

Draw 29.7%

Odds: 3.05 EV: -9.4%

Away 27.2%

Odds: 2.66 EV: -27.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.9% Odds: 2.20 +5.4%

Over 3.5 26.2% Odds: 4.20 +10.0%

BTTS 53.8% Odds: 1.85 -0.5%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Moreirense

1.47

Estrela Amadora

1.13

Model SuggestionBTTS -0.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -0.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+17.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away POOR (0.73)