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Arouca vs Santa Clara Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:30

Arouca

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Santa Clara

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.2%0-25.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.9%1-112.5%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-18.5%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.1%3-13.9%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 35.0% 2.86 +7.0%

Draw 30.0% 34.2% 2.92 -12.4%

Away win 32.7% 37.9% 2.64 -13.7%

Over 2.5 48.7% 42.6% 2.35 +14.4%

Over 3.5 26.9% 23.1% 4.33 +16.5%

BTTS 55.1% 52.4% 1.91 +5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.1%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arouca1.4

Santa Clara1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AROUCA · PPG 1.40

SANTA CLARA · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Arouca (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +7.0%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -12.4%

Santa Clara (A) 32.7%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arouca face Santa Clara in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arouca a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Santa Clara 33%, so Arouca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Arouca and 1.3 for Santa Clara (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arouca are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for Santa Clara. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Arouca vs Santa Clara Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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