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Portugal - Primeira Liga
Regular Season - 32
Estádio Municipal de Arouca· Arouca
Saturday, May 2, 2026
14:30
Arouca
PPG 1.40
2-2
MISS
Santa Clara
PPG 0.80
Over3.5· +16.5%
✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
37.4%
Odds: 2.86
EV: +7.0%
Draw
30.0%
Odds: 2.92
EV: -12.4%
Away
32.7%
Odds: 2.64
EV: -13.7%
Model lean:
BTTS
Result: Draw ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
48.7%
Odds: 2.35
+14.4%
Over 3.5
26.9%
Odds: 4.33
+16.5%
BTTS
55.1%
Odds: 1.91
+5.2%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
0-0
✘
3rd
2-1
✘
4th
1-0
✘
5th
1-2
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Arouca
1.36
Santa Clara
1.26
Model Suggestion
BTTS
+5.2%
ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market:
BTTS.
Raw EV leader:
Over3.5(+16.5%)
Verdict & Form
✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME
Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)