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Arouca vs Santa Clara Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:30

Arouca

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Santa Clara

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.2%0-25.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.9%1-112.5%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-18.5%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.1%3-13.9%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 35.0% 2.86 +7.0%

Draw 30.0% 34.2% 2.92 -12.4%

Away win 32.7% 37.9% 2.64 -13.7%

Over 2.5 48.7% 42.6% 2.35 +14.4%

Over 3.5 26.9% 23.1% 4.33 +16.5%

BTTS 55.1% 52.4% 1.91 +5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.1%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arouca1.4

Santa Clara1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AROUCA · PPG 1.40

SANTA CLARA · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Arouca (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +7.0%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -12.4%

Santa Clara (A) 32.7%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arouca face Santa Clara in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arouca a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Santa Clara 33%, so Arouca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Arouca and 1.3 for Santa Clara (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arouca are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for Santa Clara. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Arouca vs Santa Clara Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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