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FC Utrecht vs NAC Breda Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:30

FC Utrecht

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

NAC Breda

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-15.6%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.8%1-110.5%1-25.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.4%3-16.2%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 57.1% 1.75 +0.1%

Draw 25.3% 25.3% 3.95 -0.1%

Away win 17.5% 25.0% 4.00 -30.0%

Over 2.5 54.5% 61.7% 1.62 -11.7%

Over 3.5 32.1% 39.2% 2.55 -18.1%

BTTS 54.4% 62.5% 1.60 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 2.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.4%

H 57% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0✓ 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Utrecht1.9

NAC Breda1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC UTRECHT · PPG 1.80

NAC BREDA · PPG 0.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=57.2%

Win probability 1X2

FC Utrecht (H) 57.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +0.1%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -0.1%

NAC Breda (A) 17.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -30.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Utrecht face NAC Breda in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Utrecht a 57% chance, the draw 25% and NAC Breda 18%, so FC Utrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Utrecht and 1.0 for NAC Breda (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Utrecht are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.53 for NAC Breda. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 2-0.

FC Utrecht vs NAC Breda Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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