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Baltika vs Rubin Kazan Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 13:30

Baltika

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Rubin Kazan

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-19.8%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.4%1-112.5%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.1%2-17.9%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.7%3-13.4%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 52.1% 1.92 -8.2%

Draw 33.1% 28.6% 3.50 +15.8%

Away win 19.1% 22.7% 4.40 -16.0%

Over 2.5 32.0% 38.6% 2.59 -17.1%

Over 3.5 14.1% 19.6% 5.10 -28.1%

BTTS 38.7% 45.7% 2.19 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob38.7%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 17.4%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1✓ 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baltika1.3

Rubin Kazan0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BALTIKA · PPG 2.00

RUBIN KAZAN · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=47.8%

Win probability 1X2

Baltika (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -8.2%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +15.8%

Rubin Kazan (A) 19.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baltika face Rubin Kazan in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baltika a 48% chance, the draw 33% and Rubin Kazan 19%, so Baltika are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Baltika and 0.7 for Rubin Kazan (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baltika are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Rubin Kazan. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Baltika vs Rubin Kazan Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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