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Bandırmaspor vs Boluspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Bandırmaspor

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDL

UPCOMING

Boluspor

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-15.6%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.1%1-110.1%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.3%3-15.6%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-13.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% 83.3% 1.20 -28.5%

Draw 24.4% 16.7% 6.00 +27.8%

Away win 16.0% 7.7% 13.00 +64.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 63.7% 1.57 -20.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 42.0% 2.38 -19.0%

BTTS 48.0% 45.5% 2.20 +5.6%

Home O1.5 50.9% 75.2% 1.33 -32.3%

Away O1.5 18.8% 14.3% 7.00 +19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 60% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 15.1%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bandırmaspor1.8

Boluspor0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BANDIRMASPOR · PPG 1.64

BOLUSPOR · PPG 0.79

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bandırmaspor (H) 59.6%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -28.5%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +27.8%

Boluspor (A) 16.0%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +64.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bandırmaspor face Boluspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bandırmaspor a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Boluspor 16%, so Bandırmaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bandırmaspor and 0.7 for Boluspor (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bandırmaspor are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.79 for Boluspor. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +50.4%.

Bandırmaspor vs Boluspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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