Today / Turkey - 1. Lig / Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor

Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

Antalyaspor

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

UPCOMING

Sivasspor

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 56% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.0%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.5%1-110.8%1-26.1%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.2%3-15.9%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.0%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 45.5% 2.20 +9.3%

Draw 23.4% 30.3% 3.30 -13.7%

Away win 26.9% 34.5% 2.90 -13.2%

Over 2.5 59.6% 54.1% 1.85 +10.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 30.8% 3.25 +18.3%

BTTS 59.0% 58.8% 1.70 +0.3%

Home O1.5 49.9% 45.5% 2.20 +9.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 38.2% 2.62 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.0%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antalyaspor1.8

Sivasspor1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTALYASPOR · PPG 1.31

SIVASSPOR · PPG 0.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Antalyaspor (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +9.3%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.7%

Sivasspor (A) 26.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antalyaspor face Sivasspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antalyaspor a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Sivasspor 27%, so Antalyaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Antalyaspor and 1.1 for Sivasspor (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antalyaspor are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.87 for Sivasspor. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.0%.

Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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