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Makhachkala vs Rostov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:00

Makhachkala

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Rostov

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-114.4%0-26.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.3%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.1%2-16.2%2-22.7%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.2%3-11.9%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.0% 31.8% 3.14 +3.6%

Draw 36.8% 35.6% 2.81 +3.4%

Away win 30.2% 36.0% 2.78 -16.0%

Over 2.5 27.0% 33.7% 2.97 -19.8%

Over 3.5 10.9% 17.7% 5.65 -38.4%

BTTS 37.3% 44.4% 2.25 -16.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 58%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob37.3%

D 37% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 27% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.5%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.3%

#4 0–1 14.4%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Makhachkala0.9

Rostov0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MAKHACHKALA · PPG 1.46

ROSTOV · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

37%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.46) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Makhachkala (H) 33.0%

ODDS 3.14 · IMPLIED 31.8% EV +3.6%

Draw 36.8%

ODDS 2.81 · IMPLIED 35.6% EV +3.4%

Rostov (A) 30.2%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Makhachkala face Rostov in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Makhachkala a 33% chance, the draw 37% and Rostov 30%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for Makhachkala and 0.9 for Rostov (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Makhachkala are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.00 for Rostov. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Makhachkala vs Rostov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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