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Gornik Leczna vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:30

Gornik Leczna

PPG 1.07 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Slask Wroclaw

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.9%0-26.2%0-33.7%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.7%1-110.1%1-29.0%1-35.4%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.4%2-26.6%2-34.0%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.0%3-13.6%3-23.2%3-31.9%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.8%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 28.6% 3.50 +6.0%

Draw 25.9% 30.3% 3.30 -14.5%

Away win 43.8% 54.1% 1.85 -19.0%

Over 2.5 63.2% — — —

Over 3.5 41.0% — — —

BTTS 65.6% 60.6% 1.65 +8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob65.6%

A 44% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gornik Leczna1.5

Slask Wroclaw1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GORNIK LECZNA · PPG 1.07

SLASK WROCLAW · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Gornik Leczna (H) 30.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +6.0%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.5%

Slask Wroclaw (A) 43.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gornik Leczna face Slask Wroclaw in Poland - I Liga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gornik Leczna a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Slask Wroclaw 44%, so Slask Wroclaw are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gornik Leczna and 1.8 for Slask Wroclaw (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gornik Leczna are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.33 for Slask Wroclaw. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 0-4.

Gornik Leczna vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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