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Lokomotiv M. vs Dinamo Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 28 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 16:30

Lokomotiv M.

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dinamo Moscow

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.0%0-24.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.0%1-110.6%1-27.1%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.1%3-15.5%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.6%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 45.9% 2.18 +0.3%

Draw 26.5% 26.5% 3.78 +0.2%

Away win 27.5% 31.1% 3.22 -11.5%

Over 2.5 59.8% 60.6% 1.65 -1.3%

Over 3.5 37.5% 40.3% 2.48 -7.0%

BTTS 62.6% 65.8% 1.52 -4.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.6%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv M.1.8

Dinamo Moscow1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV M. · PPG 2.08

DINAMO MOSCOW · PPG 1.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.08) > Away AVERAGE (1.46)

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv M. (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +0.3%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.78 · IMPLIED 26.5% EV +0.2%

Dinamo Moscow (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.22 · IMPLIED 31.1% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv M. face Dinamo Moscow in Russia - Premier League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv M. a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Dinamo Moscow 28%, so Lokomotiv M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lokomotiv M. and 1.3 for Dinamo Moscow (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv M. are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.46 for Dinamo Moscow. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Lokomotiv M. vs Dinamo Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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