Today / Poland - I Liga / Puszcza Niepolo vs Znicz Pruszkow

Puszcza Niepolo vs Znicz Pruszkow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 16:00

Puszcza Niepolo

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Znicz Pruszkow

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.8%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.8%1-111.4%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.7%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.2%3-15.5%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Draw 27.5% 33.3% 3.00 -17.5%

Away win 22.0% 30.3% 3.30 -27.4%

Over 2.5 51.9% — — —

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 55.0% 55.6% 1.80 -1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0✓ 10.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puszcza Niepolo1.7

Znicz Pruszkow1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PUSZCZA NIEPOLO · PPG 1.40

ZNICZ PRUSZKOW · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Puszcza Niepolo (H) 50.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +5.8%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.5%

Znicz Pruszkow (A) 22.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puszcza Niepolo face Znicz Pruszkow in Poland - I Liga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puszcza Niepolo a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Znicz Pruszkow 22%, so Puszcza Niepolo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Puszcza Niepolo and 1.1 for Znicz Pruszkow (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puszcza Niepolo are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.07 for Znicz Pruszkow. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Puszcza Niepolo vs Znicz Pruszkow Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - I Liga Predictions