Krylya Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Russia - Premier League Regular Season - 28 Samara Arena· Samara Friday, May 1, 2026 14:00

Krylya Sovetov PPG 1.62

2-1 HIT CS3

Spartak Moscow PPG 1.38

Home· +62.2% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Krylya Sovetov face Spartak Moscow in Russia - Premier League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Krylya Sovetov a 31% chance, the draw 28% and Spartak Moscow 41%, so Spartak Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Krylya Sovetov and 1.5 for Spartak Moscow (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Krylya Sovetov are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.38 for Spartak Moscow. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +62.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 31.2%

Odds: 5.20 EV: +62.2%

Draw 28.3%

Odds: 4.25 EV: +20.3%

Away 40.5%

Odds: 1.65 EV: -33.2%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 54.6% Odds: 1.81 -1.2%

Over 3.5 32.3% Odds: 2.90 -6.3%

BTTS 59.5% Odds: 1.78 +5.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✔

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Krylya Sovetov

1.33

Spartak Moscow

1.53

Model SuggestionBTTS +5.9% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+62.2%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5/Under 54%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -39.8%

Bet Hit 32% (19 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.62), Away AVERAGE (1.38)