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Krylya Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 28 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 14:00

Krylya Sovetov

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Spartak Moscow

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.7%0-26.7%0-33.4%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.6%1-111.6%1-28.9%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.0%2-17.7%2-25.9%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.2%3-13.4%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 19.2% 5.20 +62.2%

Draw 28.3% 23.5% 4.25 +20.3%

Away win 40.5% 60.6% 1.65 -33.2%

Over 2.5 54.6% 55.2% 1.81 -1.2%

Over 3.5 32.3% 34.5% 2.90 -6.3%

BTTS 59.5% 56.2% 1.78 +5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.5%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1✓ 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Krylya Sovetov1.3

Spartak Moscow1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.6% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KRYLYA SOVETOV · PPG 1.62

SPARTAK MOSCOW · PPG 1.38

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.62), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Krylya Sovetov (H) 31.2%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +62.2%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 4.25 · IMPLIED 23.5% EV +20.3%

Spartak Moscow (A) 40.5%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -33.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Krylya Sovetov face Spartak Moscow in Russia - Premier League on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Krylya Sovetov a 31% chance, the draw 28% and Spartak Moscow 41%, so Spartak Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Krylya Sovetov and 1.5 for Spartak Moscow (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Krylya Sovetov are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.38 for Spartak Moscow. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +62.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Krylya Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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