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Pardubice U19 vs Sparta Praha U19 Prediction— Czech-Republic - 1. Liga U19

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:15

Pardubice U19

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

UPCOMING

Sparta Praha U19

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 74% chance

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.6%0-22.4%0-31.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-03.4%1-16.3%1-25.9%1-33.6%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.6%2-27.0%2-34.3%2-4+3.1%3 3-03.3%3-16.1%3-25.6%3-33.5%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-16.4%4+-25.9%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 38.5% 2.60 +31.0%

Draw 20.1% 28.6% 3.50 -17.8%

Away win 29.6% 45.5% 2.20 -20.9%

Over 2.5 72.6% 75.2% 1.33 -3.4%

Over 3.5 51.8% 56.2% 1.78 -7.8%

BTTS 69.7% 76.9% 1.30 -9.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 59.9% 1.67 +10.7%

Away O1.5 58.3% 63.7% 1.57 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.7%

H 50% / xG 2.4-1.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 1–1 6.3%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.1%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pardubice U192.4

Sparta Praha U191.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 51.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PARDUBICE U19 · PPG 1.21

SPARTA PRAHA U19 · PPG 1.02

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

74%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pardubice U19 (H) 50.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +31.0%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -17.8%

Sparta Praha U19 (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pardubice U19 face Sparta Praha U19 in Czech-Republic - 1. Liga U19 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pardubice U19 a 50% chance, the draw 20% and Sparta Praha U19 30%, so Pardubice U19 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Pardubice U19 and 1.9 for Sparta Praha U19 (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pardubice U19 are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.02 for Sparta Praha U19. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +37.6%.

Pardubice U19 vs Sparta Praha U19 Prediction— Czech-Republic - 1. Liga U19

Match Preview & Prediction

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