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Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 31 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 19:15

Gil Vicente

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Casa Pia

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDW

// Model verdict

Home 63% chance

Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-12.8%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.1%1-16.9%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-18.6%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.4%3-17.1%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.9%4+-18.0%4+-22.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.5% 61.7% 1.62 +7.7%

Draw 22.7% 27.0% 3.70 -16.0%

Away win 10.9% 18.2% 5.50 -40.1%

Over 2.5 59.0% 50.0% 2.00 +18.0%

Over 3.5 37.9% 28.2% 3.55 +34.5%

BTTS 49.5% 51.3% 1.95 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 66% / xG 2.5-0.6 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 3–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1✓ 8.6%

#5 1–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gil Vicente2.5

Casa Pia0.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GIL VICENTE · PPG 1.80

CASA PIA · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

63%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.80), Away POOR (0.80) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Gil Vicente (H) 66.5%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +7.7%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -16.0%

Casa Pia (A) 10.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -40.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gil Vicente face Casa Pia in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gil Vicente a 67% chance, the draw 23% and Casa Pia 11%, so Gil Vicente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Gil Vicente and 0.6 for Casa Pia (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gil Vicente are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.80 for Casa Pia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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