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Baltika vs Akron Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 27 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 17:00

Baltika

PPG 2.17 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Akron

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a clear edge.

+14.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-12.1%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.3%1-15.7%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.0%2-17.5%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.3%3-16.6%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.7%4+-18.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.7% 61.0% 1.64 +14.3%

Draw 21.2% 24.7% 4.05 -14.1%

Away win 9.1% 17.7% 5.65 -48.6%

Over 2.5 59.0% 50.8% 1.97 +16.2%

Over 3.5 38.7% 30.5% 3.28 +26.9%

BTTS 49.5% 52.1% 1.92 -5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob49.5%

H 70% / xG 2.7-0.5 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.0%

#2 3–0 13.3%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 4–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baltika2.7

Akron0.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BALTIKA · PPG 2.17

AKRON · PPG 1.08

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.17), Away AVERAGE (1.08) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Baltika (H) 69.7%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +14.3%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.05 · IMPLIED 24.7% EV -14.1%

Akron (A) 9.1%

ODDS 5.65 · IMPLIED 17.7% EV -48.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baltika face Akron in Russia - Premier League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baltika a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Akron 9%, so Baltika are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Baltika and 0.5 for Akron (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baltika are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.08 for Akron. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Baltika vs Akron Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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