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Ruch Chorzow vs Pogon Grodzisk Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 16:00

Ruch Chorzow

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Pogon Grodzisk

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.6%0-24.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.7%1-110.0%1-27.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.6%3-15.4%3-24.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.6%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 58.8% 1.70 -28.3%

Draw 29.1% 26.7% 3.75 +9.1%

Away win 28.8% 26.3% 3.80 +9.4%

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 41.5% — — —

BTTS 58.5% 62.5% 1.60 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

H 42% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2✓ 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ruch Chorzow1.8

Pogon Grodzisk1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RUCH CHORZOW · PPG 1.80

POGON GRODZISK · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

Ruch Chorzow (H) 42.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -28.3%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +9.1%

Pogon Grodzisk (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ruch Chorzow face Pogon Grodzisk in Poland - I Liga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ruch Chorzow a 42% chance, the draw 29% and Pogon Grodzisk 29%, so Ruch Chorzow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ruch Chorzow and 1.5 for Pogon Grodzisk (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ruch Chorzow are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.15 for Pogon Grodzisk. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Ruch Chorzow vs Pogon Grodzisk Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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