Today / Portugal - Primeira Liga / AVS vs Sporting CP

AVS vs Sporting CP Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 19:30

AVS

PPG 0.53 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Sporting CP

PPG 2.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

Away 86% chance

Model probability 74.9% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-16.2%0-211.4%0-313.9%0-4+32.7%1 1-00.7%1-12.6%1-24.8%1-35.8%1-4+13.7%2 2-00.1%2-10.5%2-21.0%2-31.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.5% 4.5% 22.00 -1.0%

Draw 20.6% 12.0% 8.30 +71.0%

Away win 74.9% 90.1% 1.11 -16.9%

Over 2.5 61.2% 76.9% 1.30 -20.4%

Over 3.5 58.1% 55.6% 1.80 +4.6%

BTTS 48.3% 48.8% 2.05 -1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob48.3%

A 75% / xG 0.4-3.7 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 13.9%

#2 0–4 12.7%

#3 0–2 11.4%

#4 0–5 9.3%

#5 0–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AVS0.4

Sporting CP3.7

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 58.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AVS · PPG 0.53

SPORTING CP · PPG 2.47

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

86%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.47) vs Home POOR (0.53)

Win probability 1X2

AVS (H) 4.5%

ODDS 22.00 · IMPLIED 4.5% EV -1.0%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 8.30 · IMPLIED 12.0% EV +71.0%

Sporting CP (A) 74.9%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

AVS face Sporting CP in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AVS a 5% chance, the draw 21% and Sporting CP 75%, so Sporting CP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for AVS and 3.7 for Sporting CP (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AVS are averaging 0.53 points per game versus 2.47 for Sporting CP. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +71.0%. This match finished 1-1.

AVS vs Sporting CP Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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