AVS vs Sporting CP Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 31 Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves· Vila das Aves Sunday, April 26, 2026 19:30

AVS PPG 0.53

1-1 MISS

Sporting CP PPG 2.47

Draw· +71.0% ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

AVS face Sporting CP in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AVS a 5% chance, the draw 21% and Sporting CP 75%, so Sporting CP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for AVS and 3.7 for Sporting CP (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AVS are averaging 0.53 points per game versus 2.47 for Sporting CP. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +71.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 4.5%

Odds: 22.00 EV: -1.0%

Draw 20.6%

Odds: 8.30 EV: +71.0%

Away 74.9%

Odds: 1.11 EV: -16.9%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.2% Odds: 1.30 -20.4%

Over 3.5 58.1% Odds: 1.80 +4.6%

BTTS 48.3% Odds: 2.05 -1.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-3 ✘

2nd 0-4 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 0-5 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

AVS

0.42

Sporting CP

3.66

Model SuggestionAway -16.9% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-16.9%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 57%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -4.3%

Bet Hit 50% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.47) vs Home POOR (0.53)