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Spartak Trnava vs S. Bratislava Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Championship Group · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 17:00

Spartak Trnava

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

S. Bratislava

PPG 2.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.5%0-25.5%0-33.1%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.0%1-110.2%1-28.7%1-34.9%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.7%2-17.9%2-26.8%2-33.8%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.4%3-14.1%3-23.5%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.3%4+-21.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 34.7% 2.88 +7.4%

Draw 29.7% 28.2% 3.55 +5.4%

Away win 33.0% 45.9% 2.18 -28.1%

Over 2.5 59.0% 59.9% 1.67 -1.5%

Over 3.5 41.1% 37.7% 2.65 +8.9%

BTTS 58.5% 65.4% 1.53 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Trnava1.6

S. Bratislava1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK TRNAVA · PPG 2.00

S. BRATISLAVA · PPG 2.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.21)

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Trnava (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +7.4%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +5.4%

S. Bratislava (A) 33.0%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Trnava face S. Bratislava in Slovakia - Super Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Trnava a 37% chance, the draw 30% and S. Bratislava 33%, so Spartak Trnava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Spartak Trnava and 1.7 for S. Bratislava (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Trnava are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.21 for S. Bratislava. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Spartak Trnava vs S. Bratislava Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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