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Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 17:00

Santa Clara

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Sporting Braga

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDDD

// Model verdict

Away 47% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 45.0% — a clear edge.

+14.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-115.1%0-212.2%0-36.6%0-4+3.8%1 1-07.1%1-111.4%1-29.2%1-34.9%1-4+2.9%2 2-02.7%2-14.3%2-23.5%2-31.9%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.7%3-11.1%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.1% 29.9% 3.35 -42.7%

Draw 31.2% 32.3% 3.10 -3.3%

Away win 51.6% 45.0% 2.22 +14.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 42.0% 2.38 +19.0%

Over 3.5 21.4% 22.2% 4.50 -3.7%

BTTS 49.5% 50.0% 2.00 -1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob49.5%

A 52% / xG 0.8-1.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.1%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 0–2 12.2%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Clara0.8

Sporting Braga1.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA CLARA · PPG 1.13

SPORTING BRAGA · PPG 1.87

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

47%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.87) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Santa Clara (H) 17.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -42.7%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.3%

Sporting Braga (A) 51.6%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Clara face Sporting Braga in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Clara a 17% chance, the draw 31% and Sporting Braga 52%, so Sporting Braga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Santa Clara and 1.6 for Sporting Braga (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Clara are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.87 for Sporting Braga. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Santa Clara vs Sporting Braga Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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