Estrela Amadora vs FC Porto Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 31 Estádio José Gomes· Amadora Sunday, April 26, 2026 17:00

Estrela Amadora PPG 1.13

1-2 HIT CS4

FC Porto PPG 2.67

Draw· +10.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Estrela Amadora face FC Porto in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estrela Amadora a 9% chance, the draw 24% and FC Porto 67%, so FC Porto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Estrela Amadora and 2.3 for FC Porto (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estrela Amadora are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 2.67 for FC Porto. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 9.2%

Odds: 9.10 EV: -16.3%

Draw 23.8%

Odds: 4.65 EV: +10.7%

Away 67.0%

Odds: 1.34 EV: -10.2%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.6% Odds: 1.83 -5.6%

Over 3.5 30.7% Odds: 3.10 -4.8%

BTTS 48.3% Odds: 2.15 +3.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-2 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 0-3 ✘

4th 1-2 ✔

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Estrela Amadora

0.48

FC Porto

2.31

Model SuggestionAway -10.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -10.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+10.7%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)