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Estrela Amadora vs FC Porto Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 17:00

Estrela Amadora

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

FC Porto

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Away 72% chance

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-114.1%0-216.3%0-312.6%0-4+12.5%1 1-03.0%1-16.8%1-27.9%1-36.1%1-4+6.1%2 2-00.7%2-11.6%2-21.9%2-31.5%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.2% 11.0% 9.10 -16.3%

Draw 23.8% 21.5% 4.65 +10.7%

Away win 67.0% 74.6% 1.34 -10.2%

Over 2.5 51.6% 54.6% 1.83 -5.6%

Over 3.5 30.7% 32.3% 3.10 -4.8%

BTTS 48.3% 46.5% 2.15 +3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob48.3%

A 67% / xG 0.5-2.3 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 16.3%

#2 0–1 14.1%

#3 0–3 12.6%

#4 1–2✓ 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estrela Amadora0.5

FC Porto2.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTRELA AMADORA · PPG 1.13

FC PORTO · PPG 2.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

72%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Estrela Amadora (H) 9.2%

ODDS 9.10 · IMPLIED 11.0% EV -16.3%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +10.7%

FC Porto (A) 67.0%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estrela Amadora face FC Porto in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estrela Amadora a 9% chance, the draw 24% and FC Porto 67%, so FC Porto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Estrela Amadora and 2.3 for FC Porto (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estrela Amadora are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 2.67 for FC Porto. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Estrela Amadora vs FC Porto Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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