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Zenit vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:30

Zenit

PPG 2.69 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Akhmat Grozny

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDD

// Model verdict

Home 75% chance

Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-12.1%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.6%1-15.6%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.3%2-17.5%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.4%3-16.6%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.7%4+-18.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.8% 76.9% 1.30 -9.3%

Draw 21.3% 17.7% 5.65 +20.3%

Away win 9.0% 8.7% 11.50 +3.5%

Over 2.5 59.0% 54.9% 1.82 +7.4%

Over 3.5 38.2% 34.5% 2.90 +10.8%

BTTS 49.2% 43.7% 2.29 +12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob49.2%

H 70% / xG 2.6-0.5 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 15.3%

#2 3–0 13.4%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 4–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zenit2.6

Akhmat Grozny0.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ZENIT · PPG 2.69

AKHMAT GROZNY · PPG 0.69

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

75%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.69), Away POOR (0.69) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Zenit (H) 69.8%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -9.3%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 5.65 · IMPLIED 17.7% EV +20.3%

Akhmat Grozny (A) 9.0%

ODDS 11.50 · IMPLIED 8.7% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zenit face Akhmat Grozny in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zenit a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Akhmat Grozny 9%, so Zenit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Zenit and 0.5 for Akhmat Grozny (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zenit are averaging 2.69 points per game versus 0.69 for Akhmat Grozny. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +20.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Zenit vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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