Zenit vs Akhmat Grozny Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Russia - Premier League Regular Season - 27 Gazprom Arena· Saint Petersburg Sunday, April 26, 2026 16:30

Zenit PPG 2.69

2-0 HIT MostLikelyScore

Akhmat Grozny PPG 0.69

Draw· +20.3% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Zenit face Akhmat Grozny in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zenit a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Akhmat Grozny 9%, so Zenit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Zenit and 0.5 for Akhmat Grozny (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zenit are averaging 2.69 points per game versus 0.69 for Akhmat Grozny. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +20.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 69.8%

Odds: 1.30 EV: -9.3%

Draw 21.3%

Odds: 5.65 EV: +20.3%

Away 9.0%

Odds: 11.50 EV: +3.5%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.82 +7.4%

Over 3.5 38.2% Odds: 2.90 +10.8%

BTTS 49.2% Odds: 2.29 +12.7%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✔

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 4-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Zenit

2.64

Akhmat Grozny

0.49

Model SuggestionHome -9.3% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-9.3%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.69), Away POOR (0.69) - Strong consensus