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Servette vs Winterthur Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Relegation Group · Matchday 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:30

Servette

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Winterthur

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.3%0-20.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.5%1-14.4%1-22.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.7%2-17.2%2-24.6%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.9%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-011.7%4+-114.8%4+-29.4%4+-34.0%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 73.5% 1.36 -16.0%

Draw 21.8% 19.6% 5.10 +11.2%

Away win 16.3% 13.8% 7.25 +18.2%

Over 2.5 68.1% 71.4% 1.40 -4.7%

Over 3.5 66.6% 50.0% 2.00 +33.2%

BTTS 58.5% 63.7% 1.57 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 62% / xG 3.3-1.3 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 7.2%

#3 4–1 6.5%

#4 3–0 6.2%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Servette3.3

Winterthur1.3

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 66.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SERVETTE · PPG 1.29

WINTERTHUR · PPG 0.53

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

70%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.53)

Win probability 1X2

Servette (H) 61.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -16.0%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +11.2%

Winterthur (A) 16.3%

ODDS 7.25 · IMPLIED 13.8% EV +18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Servette face Winterthur in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Servette a 62% chance, the draw 22% and Winterthur 16%, so Servette are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Servette and 1.3 for Winterthur (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Servette are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.53 for Winterthur. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.2%. This match finished 5-3.

Servette vs Winterthur Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Super League Predictions