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Estoril vs Famalicao Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:30

Estoril

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Famalicao

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.9%0-25.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.4%1-111.7%1-28.1%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.0%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 31.3% 3.20 +24.5%

Draw 30.6% 28.2% 3.55 +8.6%

Away win 30.5% 47.6% 2.10 -35.9%

Over 2.5 59.0% 59.9% 1.67 -1.5%

Over 3.5 32.5% 37.7% 2.65 -13.9%

BTTS 58.5% 64.5% 1.55 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.5%

D 31% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estoril1.5

Famalicao1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTORIL · PPG 1.53

FAMALICAO · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Estoril (H) 38.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +24.5%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +8.6%

Famalicao (A) 30.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -35.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estoril face Famalicao in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estoril a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Famalicao 31%, so Estoril are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Estoril and 1.4 for Famalicao (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estoril are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.40 for Famalicao. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Estoril vs Famalicao Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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