Estoril vs Famalicao Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 31 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota· Estoril Sunday, April 26, 2026 14:30

Estoril PPG 1.53

0-1 MISS

Famalicao PPG 1.40

Home· +24.5% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Estoril face Famalicao in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estoril a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Famalicao 31%, so Estoril are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Estoril and 1.4 for Famalicao (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estoril are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.40 for Famalicao. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.9%

Odds: 3.20 EV: +24.5%

Draw 30.6%

Odds: 3.55 EV: +8.6%

Away 30.5%

Odds: 2.10 EV: -35.9%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.67 -1.5%

Over 3.5 32.5% Odds: 2.65 -13.9%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.55 -9.3%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Estoril

1.48

Famalicao

1.40

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -1.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -1.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+24.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 57%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -4.3%

Bet Hit 50% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away AVERAGE (1.40)