FC Krasnodar vs Makhachkala Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Russia - Premier League Regular Season - 27 Ozon Arena· Krasnodar Sunday, April 26, 2026 14:00

FC Krasnodar PPG 2.38

2-1 MISS

Makhachkala PPG 0.38

Over3.5· +15.9% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Krasnodar face Makhachkala in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Krasnodar a 72% chance, the draw 21% and Makhachkala 7%, so FC Krasnodar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for FC Krasnodar and 0.3 for Makhachkala (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Krasnodar are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.38 for Makhachkala. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 72.4%

Odds: 1.36 EV: -1.5%

Draw 20.6%

Odds: 5.15 EV: +6.1%

Away 7.0%

Odds: 9.40 EV: -34.2%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.85 +9.2%

Over 3.5 39.3% Odds: 2.95 +15.9%

BTTS 39.6% Odds: 2.16 -14.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 4-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 5-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Krasnodar

2.88

Makhachkala

0.30

Model SuggestionHome -1.5% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-1.5%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.38) - Strong consensus