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FC Krasnodar vs Makhachkala Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 27 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

FC Krasnodar

PPG 2.38 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Makhachkala

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-11.3%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.0%1-13.6%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.2%2-15.2%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-016.5%3-15.0%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-024.0%4+-17.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.4% 73.5% 1.36 -1.5%

Draw 20.6% 19.4% 5.15 +6.1%

Away win 7.0% 10.6% 9.40 -34.2%

Over 2.5 59.0% 54.1% 1.85 +9.2%

Over 3.5 39.3% 33.9% 2.95 +15.9%

BTTS 39.6% 46.3% 2.16 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob39.6%

H 72% / xG 2.9-0.3 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.2%

#2 3–0 16.5%

#3 4–0 11.8%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 5–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Krasnodar2.9

Makhachkala0.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KRASNODAR · PPG 2.38

MAKHACHKALA · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.38) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC Krasnodar (H) 72.4%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -1.5%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 5.15 · IMPLIED 19.4% EV +6.1%

Makhachkala (A) 7.0%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV -34.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Krasnodar face Makhachkala in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Krasnodar a 72% chance, the draw 21% and Makhachkala 7%, so FC Krasnodar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for FC Krasnodar and 0.3 for Makhachkala (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Krasnodar are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.38 for Makhachkala. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 2-1.

FC Krasnodar vs Makhachkala Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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