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Dinamo Moscow vs PFC Sochi Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

Dinamo Moscow

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

PFC Sochi

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLD

// Model verdict

Home 70% chance

Model probability 70.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.9%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.6%1-13.3%1-21.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.7%2-16.2%2-22.8%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.3%3-17.6%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-020.2%4+-118.7%4+-28.6%4+-32.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.2% 69.4% 1.44 +1.1%

Draw 20.6% 20.0% 5.00 +3.0%

Away win 9.2% 13.9% 7.20 -33.8%

Over 2.5 68.1% 65.8% 1.52 +3.5%

Over 3.5 68.1% 41.8% 2.39 +62.8%

BTTS 58.5% 58.1% 1.72 +0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob58.5%

H 70% / xG 3.7-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.3%

#2 4–0 7.7%

#3 3–1 7.6%

#4 4–1 7.1%

#5 2–0✓ 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Moscow3.7

PFC Sochi0.9

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 68.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO MOSCOW · PPG 1.23

PFC SOCHI · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

70%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.23) > Away POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Moscow (H) 70.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +1.1%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.0%

PFC Sochi (A) 9.2%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV -33.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Moscow face PFC Sochi in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Moscow a 70% chance, the draw 21% and PFC Sochi 9%, so Dinamo Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Dinamo Moscow and 0.9 for PFC Sochi (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Moscow are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 0.77 for PFC Sochi. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +62.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Dinamo Moscow vs PFC Sochi Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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