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Sariyer vs Erokspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Sariyer

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Erokspor

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-111.3%0-210.4%0-36.4%0-4+4.5%1 1-05.8%1-110.7%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-02.8%2-15.1%2-24.7%2-32.9%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.5% 17.2% 5.80 +53.7%

Draw 27.7% 25.6% 3.90 +8.0%

Away win 45.8% 66.7% 1.50 -31.3%

Over 2.5 51.6% 58.8% 1.70 -12.3%

Over 3.5 30.7% 37.0% 2.70 -17.1%

BTTS 57.8% 57.8% 1.73 -0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob57.8%

A 46% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 0–2 10.4%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sariyer0.9

Erokspor1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SARIYER · PPG 1.67

EROKSPOR · PPG 2.06

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

58%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.06)

Win probability 1X2

Sariyer (H) 26.5%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +53.7%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +8.0%

Erokspor (A) 45.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -31.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sariyer face Erokspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sariyer a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Erokspor 46%, so Erokspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sariyer and 1.8 for Erokspor (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sariyer are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.06 for Erokspor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +53.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Sariyer vs Erokspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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