Sariyer vs Erokspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Turkey - 1. Lig Regular Season - 37 Yusuf Ziya Onis· Istanbul Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Sariyer PPG 1.67

1-0 MISS

Erokspor PPG 2.06

Home· +53.7% ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sariyer face Erokspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sariyer a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Erokspor 46%, so Erokspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sariyer and 1.8 for Erokspor (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sariyer are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.06 for Erokspor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +53.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 26.5%

Odds: 5.80 EV: +53.7%

Draw 27.7%

Odds: 3.90 EV: +8.0%

Away 45.8%

Odds: 1.50 EV: -31.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.6% Odds: 1.70 -12.3%

Over 3.5 30.7% Odds: 2.70 -17.1%

BTTS 57.8% Odds: 1.73 -0.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-2 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sariyer

0.95

Erokspor

1.84

Model SuggestionBTTS -0.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -0.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+53.7%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5/Under 52%

BTTS/No 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -82.8%

Bet Hit 17% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.06)