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Sakaryaspor vs Corum Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Sakaryaspor

PPG 1.22 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Corum

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-18.8%0-28.3%0-35.3%0-4+3.9%1 1-05.4%1-110.3%1-29.8%1-36.2%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.2%2-16.1%2-25.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.7%3 3-01.3%3-12.4%3-22.3%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 10.8% 9.25 +152.5%

Draw 28.2% 22.2% 4.50 +26.9%

Away win 44.5% 76.9% 1.30 -42.1%

Over 2.5 59.0% 58.8% 1.70 +0.3%

Over 3.5 37.0% 37.0% 2.70 -0.1%

BTTS 58.5% 50.0% 2.00 +17.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -9.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.5%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.3%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sakaryaspor1.2

Corum1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAKARYASPOR · PPG 1.22

CORUM · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.22), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sakaryaspor (H) 27.3%

ODDS 9.25 · IMPLIED 10.8% EV +152.5%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +26.9%

Corum (A) 44.5%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -42.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sakaryaspor face Corum in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sakaryaspor a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Corum 45%, so Corum are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sakaryaspor and 1.9 for Corum (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sakaryaspor are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.50 for Corum. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +152.5%. This match finished 0-4.

Sakaryaspor vs Corum Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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