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Al Riffa vs AAli FC Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 16:35

Al Riffa

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

AAli FC

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-110.6%0-23.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-112.2%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.3%2-17.0%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-12.7%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 78.1% 1.28 -37.8%

Draw 31.5% 22.7% 4.40 +38.6%

Away win 19.9% 8.3% 12.00 +138.8%

Over 2.5 26.3% 54.1% 1.85 -51.3%

Over 3.5 10.5% 32.3% 3.10 -67.5%

BTTS 31.7% 43.5% 2.30 -27.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob31.7%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.5%

#2 0–0 17.0%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Riffa1.2

AAli FC0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.3% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RIFFA · PPG 1.75

AALI FC · PPG 1.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Al Riffa (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -37.8%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +38.6%

AAli FC (A) 19.9%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +138.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Riffa face AAli FC in Bahrain - Premier League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Riffa a 49% chance, the draw 32% and AAli FC 20%, so Al Riffa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Riffa and 0.6 for AAli FC (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Riffa are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.75 for AAli FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +138.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Al Riffa vs AAli FC Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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