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Rostov vs PFC Sochi Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 16:30

Rostov

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

PFC Sochi

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-111.4%0-25.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.7%1-113.3%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-17.8%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.4%3-13.0%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 67.6% 1.48 -38.0%

Draw 29.8% 22.7% 4.40 +31.1%

Away win 28.2% 13.2% 7.60 +114.3%

Over 2.5 34.2% 48.8% 2.05 -29.9%

Over 3.5 15.6% 27.9% 3.58 -44.1%

BTTS 40.9% 46.1% 2.17 -11.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob40.9%

H 42% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 12.6%

#4 0–1✓ 11.4%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rostov1.2

PFC Sochi0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSTOV · PPG 1.17

PFC SOCHI · PPG 0.58

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.58)

Win probability 1X2

Rostov (H) 41.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -38.0%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +31.1%

PFC Sochi (A) 28.2%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +114.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rostov face PFC Sochi in Russia - Premier League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rostov a 42% chance, the draw 30% and PFC Sochi 28%, so Rostov are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Rostov and 0.9 for PFC Sochi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rostov are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.58 for PFC Sochi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +114.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Rostov vs PFC Sochi Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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