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Unia Skierniewi vs Sokol Kleczew Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:30

Unia Skierniewi

PPG 1.93 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sokol Kleczew

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.6%0-22.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.3%1-16.6%1-25.0%1-32.6%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.5%2-18.4%2-26.4%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.7%3-17.2%3-25.5%3-32.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-18.5%4+-26.4%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 71.4% 1.40 -29.9%

Draw 24.2% 24.4% 4.10 -0.8%

Away win 25.7% 16.1% 6.20 +59.3%

Over 2.5 61.2% 66.7% 1.50 -8.2%

Over 3.5 58.2% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

H 50% / xG 2.6-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0✓ 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unia Skierniewi2.6

Sokol Kleczew1.5

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 58.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIA SKIERNIEWI · PPG 1.93

SOKOL KLECZEW · PPG 1.08

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=50.1%

Win probability 1X2

Unia Skierniewi (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -29.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.8%

Sokol Kleczew (A) 25.7%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +59.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Unia Skierniewi face Sokol Kleczew in Poland - II Liga - East on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unia Skierniewi a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Sokol Kleczew 26%, so Unia Skierniewi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Unia Skierniewi and 1.5 for Sokol Kleczew (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unia Skierniewi are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.08 for Sokol Kleczew. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +59.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Unia Skierniewi vs Sokol Kleczew Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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