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Wieczysta K. vs Tychy Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:30

Wieczysta K.

PPG 1.57 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Tychy

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.2%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.4%1-14.1%1-22.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.8%2-17.0%2-24.2%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.5%3-17.9%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-115.8%4+-29.6%4+-33.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Draw 20.7% 23.1% 4.33 -10.4%

Away win 16.1% 17.2% 5.80 -6.6%

Over 2.5 68.1% — — —

Over 3.5 67.4% — — —

BTTS 58.5% 62.5% 1.60 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 63% / xG 3.4-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 7.0%

#3 4–1 6.7%

#4 3–0 6.5%

#5 2–0✓ 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wieczysta K.3.4

Tychy1.2

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 67.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WIECZYSTA K. · PPG 1.57

TYCHY · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Wieczysta K. (H) 63.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -11.5%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -10.4%

Tychy (A) 16.1%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wieczysta K. face Tychy in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wieczysta K. a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Tychy 16%, so Wieczysta K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Wieczysta K. and 1.2 for Tychy (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wieczysta K. are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.79 for Tychy. This match finished 2-0.

Wieczysta K. vs Tychy Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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