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Heracles Almelo vs FC Volendam Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:30

Heracles Almelo

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FC Volendam

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.4%0-25.4%0-33.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.1%1-110.2%1-28.5%1-34.8%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-18.1%2-26.8%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.5%3-14.3%3-23.6%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.4%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 46.3% 2.16 -19.4%

Draw 29.7% 26.7% 3.75 +11.4%

Away win 33.0% 33.9% 2.95 -2.6%

Over 2.5 59.0% 61.7% 1.62 -4.4%

Over 3.5 41.1% 39.2% 2.55 +4.8%

BTTS 58.5% 65.4% 1.53 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2✓ 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heracles Almelo1.6

FC Volendam1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HERACLES ALMELO · PPG 1.00

FC VOLENDAM · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Heracles Almelo (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -19.4%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +11.4%

FC Volendam (A) 33.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heracles Almelo face FC Volendam in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heracles Almelo a 37% chance, the draw 30% and FC Volendam 33%, so Heracles Almelo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Heracles Almelo and 1.7 for FC Volendam (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heracles Almelo are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.33 for FC Volendam. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Heracles Almelo vs FC Volendam Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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