← Back to picks

Heracles Almelo vs FC Volendam Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Netherlands - Eredivisie logo Netherlands flag Netherlands - Eredivisie Regular Season - 31 Asito Stadium· Almelo Sunday, April 26, 2026 12:30
Heracles Almelo logo Heracles Almelo PPG 1.00
0-2 HIT CS5
FC Volendam logo FC Volendam PPG 0.33
Draw· +11.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Heracles Almelo face FC Volendam in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heracles Almelo a 37% chance, the draw 30% and FC Volendam 33%, so Heracles Almelo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Heracles Almelo and 1.7 for FC Volendam (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heracles Almelo are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.33 for FC Volendam. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.3%
Odds: 2.16 EV: -19.4%
Draw 29.7%
Odds: 3.75 EV: +11.4%
Away 33.0%
Odds: 2.95 EV: -2.6%
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.62 -4.4%
Over 3.5 41.1% Odds: 2.55 +4.8%
BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.53 -10.5%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 1-2
3rd 2-1
4th 2-2
5th 0-2

Expected Goals (xG)

Heracles Almelo
1.58
FC Volendam
1.68

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 -4.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -4.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+11.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.33)

PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org