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FC Basel vs Sion Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Championship Group · Matchday 34 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

FC Basel

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sion

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.9%0-27.2%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.4%1-112.2%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.1%2-17.5%2-25.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.1%3-13.1%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 40.8% 2.45 -14.5%

Draw 29.6% 29.4% 3.40 +0.6%

Away win 35.5% 40.0% 2.50 -11.3%

Over 2.5 51.6% — — —

Over 3.5 28.4% — — —

BTTS 58.5% 66.7% 1.50 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Basel1.2

Sion1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC BASEL · PPG 1.69

SION · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

FC Basel (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -14.5%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +0.6%

Sion (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Basel face Sion in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Basel a 35% chance, the draw 30% and Sion 36%, so Sion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FC Basel and 1.5 for Sion (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Basel are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.38 for Sion. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.6%. This match finished 0-2.

FC Basel vs Sion Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Switzerland - Super League Predictions