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Mainz 05 W vs Bochum W Prediction— Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Mainz 05 W

PPG 1.91 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bochum W

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.6%0-22.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.2%1-18.2%1-25.4%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.4%3-17.1%3-24.7%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-17.0%4+-24.6%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 25.4% — — —

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 48.6% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 50% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mainz 05 W2.3

Bochum W1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 48.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MAINZ 05 W · PPG 1.91

BOCHUM W · PPG 1.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.91), Away GOOD (1.91)

Win probability 1X2

Mainz 05 W (H) 50.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bochum W (A) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mainz 05 W face Bochum W in Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mainz 05 W a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Bochum W 25%, so Mainz 05 W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Mainz 05 W and 1.3 for Bochum W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mainz 05 W are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.91 for Bochum W. This match finished 3-0.

Mainz 05 W vs Bochum W Prediction— Germany - 2. Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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