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Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:00

Nizhny Novgorod

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Spartak Moscow

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 56% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-18.9%0-27.5%0-34.2%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.6%1-111.2%1-29.4%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.2%2-17.0%2-25.9%2-33.3%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.7%3-12.9%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 16.5% 6.05 +83.3%

Draw 29.9% 22.7% 4.40 +31.6%

Away win 39.8% 64.1% 1.56 -37.9%

Over 2.5 59.0% 55.2% 1.81 +6.8%

Over 3.5 33.9% 34.6% 2.89 -2.0%

BTTS 58.5% 54.1% 1.85 +8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2✓ 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nizhny Novgorod1.3

Spartak Moscow1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NIZHNY NOVGOROD · PPG 1.15

SPARTAK MOSCOW · PPG 1.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.15), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Nizhny Novgorod (H) 30.3%

ODDS 6.05 · IMPLIED 16.5% EV +83.3%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +31.6%

Spartak Moscow (A) 39.8%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -37.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nizhny Novgorod face Spartak Moscow in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 30% chance, the draw 30% and Spartak Moscow 40%, so Spartak Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.7 for Spartak Moscow (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.25 for Spartak Moscow. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +83.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Nizhny Novgorod vs Spartak Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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