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Chrobry Glogow vs Stal Mielec Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 16:00

Chrobry Glogow

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Stal Mielec

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+24.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.6%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.2%1-111.3%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.8%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.6%3-15.6%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 43.5% 2.30 +24.7%

Draw 23.8% 31.3% 3.20 -23.8%

Away win 22.0% 37.0% 2.70 -40.6%

Over 2.5 51.4% — — —

Over 3.5 29.3% — — —

BTTS 52.2% 61.7% 1.62 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.2%

H 54% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1✓ 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 0–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chrobry Glogow1.7

Stal Mielec1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CHROBRY GLOGOW · PPG 1.50

STAL MIELEC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Chrobry Glogow (H) 54.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +24.7%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -23.8%

Stal Mielec (A) 22.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -40.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chrobry Glogow face Stal Mielec in Poland - I Liga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chrobry Glogow a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Stal Mielec 22%, so Chrobry Glogow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Chrobry Glogow and 1.0 for Stal Mielec (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chrobry Glogow are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Stal Mielec. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Chrobry Glogow vs Stal Mielec Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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